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AZ Mirror: With summer coming fast, regulator issues electric reliability warning

Posted by Robert Zullo on May 19, 2023

AZ Mirror examines the likelihood of summer power outages and regulator issues, quoting Leah Rubin Shen's perspective on states' responsibility to build resiliency towards ever-rising temperatures and summer heat waves.

As much as two-thirds of North America could face shortages of electricity this summer in the event of severe and protracted heat, according to the regulator in charge of setting and enforcing standards for the electric grid. 

“Increased, rapid deployment of wind, solar and batteries have made a positive impact,” said Mark Olson, manager of reliability assessments for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), in a news release. “However, generator retirements continue to increase the risks associated with extreme summer temperatures, which factors into potential supply shortages in the western two-thirds of North America if summer temperatures spike.” 

NERC’s 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment says the amount of electric generation capacity across the country is adequate for normal summer weather, though spiking temperatures, coupled with potential high outage rates from fossil plants and low output from renewables, could force emergency actions like interrupting power service. NERC says the areas that face elevated risk are the U.S. West, the Midwestern states that are part of SPP and MISO — a pair of regional transmission organizations that each coordinate the flow of electricity for a huge swathe of the central U.S. — Texas, New England and parts of the upper South. 

In particular, the report says wind output in MISO and SPP will be a “key factor” in whether there will be enough electricity to maintain reliability. NERC also cites natural gas and coal supply risks and the EPA’s new “Good Neighbor Plan” rule, which is intended to cut smog-forming pollution from power plants and other industrial facilities in 23 states but will likely limit hours of operation for coal plants. 

Michael Goggin, a vice president at Grid Strategies, a consulting firm, said wind and solar have historically performed well during peak electric demand periods and generally meet or exceed the output grid operators expect them to deliver.

“The primary cause of reliability risks during both hot and cold extreme weather has been the underperformance of fossil, and particularly gas, generators,” Goggin said, citing gas plants that failed to perform during heat waves in 2020 and 2022 in California and other parts of the west. 

Advanced Energy United, a trade group representing renewable energy businesses, said the report underscored the need to update the electric grid and increase the ability to move electricity around the country by building more transmission lines.

“With no end in sight to grueling summer heat waves induced by climate change, states that do nothing to shore up the energy grid will continue to risk blackouts and skyrocketing electricity costs,” said Leah Rubin Shen, Advanced Energy United’s managing director. “Modernizing our 100-year-old electric grid with new transmission lines and new grid-improving technology will make it easier for all kinds of clean energy, like large-scale projects as well as household and neighborhood resources, to connect to the grid and make it more reliable and affordable.”

The group also called for a full-fledged regional transmission organization for the West, which currently has a power trading mechanism called the Energy Imbalance Market but has seen some states exploring efforts to better connect the region. Both Colorado and Nevada, for example, have passed legislation requiring their states to join regional transmission organizations and California is exploring further regionalization. 

Read the full article here.

Topics: United In The News, Leah Rubin Shen, Arizona