The One Big Beautiful Bill, President Donald Trump’s budget wishlist with tax cuts for the wealthy, could have an enormous impact on Virginia’s ability to address the climate crisis, produce renewable energy and generate economic activity for its communities.

The bill, passed by House Congressional Republicans May 22, effectively kills several investment and production tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act, former President Joe Biden’s signature climate law. 

According to an analysis of information from various websites, including the Climate Investment Monitor, E2 and Weseley, almost 70 projects in the districts of Republican representatives from Virginia—worth $18.2 billion in investments and creating almost 11,000 jobs—have used those credits. The U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee found 21,642 jobs in Virginia had been announced as a result of the IRA.

The One Big Beautiful Bill’s provisions would require projects seeking to use the tax credits to be under construction within 60 days of enactment of the legislation, and be producing electricity for the grid by 2028. Nuclear sources would still be given a timeline of needing to start construction by 2031 in order to receive a production tax credit.

At a time when more electricity generation is needed for the grid, the ones that are “ready to go, the vast majority of those projects are advanced energy. They are solar, they are wind, they are battery storage,” said Harry Godfrey, managing director of Advanced Energy United.

“The answer is unequivocal, if you pull back on these tax policies, it raises costs to consumers,” Godfrey said, referencing a Clean Energy Buyers Association analysis that found removing the tax credits provided under the IRA increases residential electricity costs in Virginia by 5.4 percent. “These are means of helping continue accelerate the development,” of the clean energy that’s more affordable than fossil fuels, “and lower the costs to consumers.”

Solar and Storage Stalling Out?

Virginia is a net importer of electricity, meaning it relies on other states to generate power and deliver it through transmission lines to meet peak demand at times, which the weekend of June 22 last year reached 21,361 megawatts in Dominion’s service territory. 

But given local pushback against solar and storage projects in Virginia, PJM permitting and supply chain issues, the One Big Beautiful Bill’s new timelines are a “big deal,” said Skyler Zunk, co-founder and CEO of Energy Right, a solar advocacy group rooted in conservative principles. 

“This essentially would make them all have to go back and refinance completely. That’s essentially pulling the rug out from under very mature projects that have just not started construction,” said Zunk. “This is very important for AI, advanced computing, advanced transportation growth. This bill would be bigger and more beautiful if it truly kept the incentives in place to produce more electrons domestically.”

Zunk pointed to an Energix solar and storage project, and a Dominion Energy solar project, both in Brunswick County, that could generate 200 and 300 megawatts, respectively. The projects had been approved at the local level but still need a state permit, a cultural resource survey and a geotechnical analysis, meaning “it’s going to be probably a year or more before either of those start construction. Those two would be really affected.”

For those who want fossil fuel forms of energy production, natural gas turbines are experiencing years of delay from supply chain issues, energy developers have stated. And, small modular nuclear reactors aren’t likely to come online until the 2030s and may get hurt by the One Big Beautiful Bill wiping out a provision to allow the transferring, or purchasing, of tax credits to investors who want to wipe out their own tax liability, which allows smaller investors to take more risk on emerging technologies, Godfrey said.

The Virginia Clean Economy Act also has targets for Dominion Energy to build out 16,100 megawatts of solar and storage and wind generation technologies. The utility and Appalachian Power Company, which operates under American Electric Power Company and serves rural southwest Virginia, must acquire 100 percent carbon-free generation portfolios by 2050 through a mix of utility and privately-owned resources.

Dominion Energy did not respond to a request for comment, but in a regulatory filing detailed several IRA and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding mechanisms it has applied for while stating, “any incremental credit that the Company receives as a result of the IRA will be passed on to customers through lower project costs.”

Appalachian Power, which is facing rising energy bills and a dwindling customer base, said in a statement, “We are continuing to engage members of the Senate as they consider what has been proposed by the House.”

Manufacturing Halted?

Farther southwest in the deep red districts of Griffith and McGuire, jobs are hard to come by.

The region, largely beholden to coal, has made efforts to use federal government Abandoned Mine Land Economic Revitalization funds, which sought another round of applications in March for $11 million.

But manufacturing jobs are increasing, including Microporous, a battery manufacturer that announced a $1.3 billion investment for a facility in Pittsylvania County, which has benefited from the IRA tax credits.

There’s also Volvo Trucks North America employing 36,000 people at a plant in Dublin, which has benefited from Commercial Clean Vehicle Credits reducing the costs of electric heavy trucks. The two companies did not respond to a request for comment on the One Big Beautiful Bill.

A press secretary for Youngkin, who cheered the Micorporous announcement, declined to address how loss of the credits could impact the company’s operations and instead cheered the work of Trump Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Department of Interior Secretary Doug Burgum for “unleashing safe, secure, and reliable American energy and power,” without mentioning the word clean. 

Peter Finocchio,Yougkin’s spokesperson, also touted the Trump administration and Virginia’s efforts on nuclear, including what could be the first nuclear fusion plant in the world and “several active Small Modular Reactor projects in the works.” Called SMR’s for short, small modular reactors can produce 300 megawatts of electricity and are being looked at as a way to provide carbon-free 24/7 baseload power, though critics question if the technology can be affordable.

Godfrey, with Advanced Energy United, wondered what losing the clean energy purchasing credits may do to the Volvo plant’s sales.

“I think it’s really important for policy makers to take into account the impact of pulling back on some of those demand-side drivers in the form of tax credits like for clean commercial vehicles,” said Godfrey. “I don’t know whether folks in the ninth district are driving those vehicles, but I know they’re making them. If we undercut the clean commercial vehicles incentive, does that continue? I don’t know.”