In October 2023, I tagged on a question to an interview with Jigar Shah.

“What if we get a change in presidential administrations and we get a Republican lock on Congress? How much of the Inflation Reduction Act will stand regardless?”

Trump still had opposition, but was clearly the front runner.

“There’s obviously no answer to that question,” answered Shah, who then and now directs Department of Energy’s loan program.

Shah then proceeded to suggest that things might not change all that much.

“Four major technologies have thrived to the point where they’re super cost-effective today: solar, wind, lithium-ion battery storage, and electric vehicles. All four were unscathed but (actually) thrived under the Trump administration,” he said.

“Folks argue about policy, but when it comes to going to the ribbon-cutting in their community, they’re the first in line. And they’re the first ones who want those 800 jobs. And if those 800 jobs are contingent upon those IRA incentives continuing, my sense is that they’re going to continue.”

On Friday, in an interview about these struggles of the renewable sector that pre-dated the Trump election, Kruger and I talked at greater depth.

“My concern with the federal election is that Donald Trump doesn’t really pay attention to nuance, doesn’t really pay attention to data,” he said.

Domestic production can’t meet even a third of demand, he said, “So we’re going to need to buy panels from other countries, and slapping a 60% tariff on solar panels from China or, huge tariffs on panels from other places like have been threatened — Southeast Asia, Mexico, India, Turkey, etc. — it doesn’t stop the train. It just makes the train a lot more expensive.”

The tariffs will result in increased domestic production of solar panels —probably including in Colorado — but it will slow the deployment of solar just as the sector was heading toward an unprecedented boom, partly in response to the drive to decarbonize but also a giant increase in demand for electricity after two decades of slow growth.

What else can be said? Colorado has been promised a big bundle of money through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, by one estimate $1 billion altogether, plus large amounts from the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Act.

For example, both U.S. senators from Colorado during July were at EPA headquarters near Denver’s Union Station to announce $200 million in funding from the Inflation Reduction Act for a broad program in the nine-county Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) to help reform our buildings. The Colorado Energy Office had received another $129 million, also from the IRA.  See: “A great transition 50 years from now.”

Will that money actually arrive?

Leah Rubin Shen, managing director at Advanced Energy United, said some programs will be fully “out the door” by the end of the last fiscal year, i.e. for the federal government, in September.

Others programs, such as the state efficiency rebate program for home electrification, are more state dependent.

“Colorado already has their funding approved. They’re going to have the funding,” she said.

DRCOG confirmed its $200 million grant. “The grant agreement was completed in October and those funds have now been obligated to the building decarbonization program at DRCOG. We have no reason to believe the funding is insecure,” said communications specialist Charmaine Robledo.

But there are other programs, such as the Grid Resilience and Innovation Program, or GRIP. A couple rounds of funding have been issued. “I think round one is certainly safe,” said Rubin Shen. “Round two is probably safe, but there’s still funding for another round. That fundraising is to be decided if it ever gets obligated.”

Congress has power of the purse strings, and as Jigar Shah had pointed out, members of Congress love to bring home the bacon. Could Trump and his appointees intercede?

Rubin Shen points out that much interpretation has been left up to the administration, as is often the case and which was particularly true with the massive Inflation Reduction Act.

“The administration could change what has been up until now the agency interpretations of some of these programs, and that’s not just with the grant programs but also with all the tax credits that were either reauthorized or extended or created. They could rewrite guidance at the Treasury as well,” she said.

“If so, there could well be pushback from industrial sectors, voices saying “Hey, don’t mess with this too much, because we’re making these investments. We’re making these decisions based on X, Y, and Z and now you’re saying it’s A, B and C.”

But again, Congress has control of the purse strings.

“If the Trump administration wanted to take funding for home electrification and repurpose it to, say, border security, I don’t think they could do that easily without approval of Congress.”

Like others, Rubin Shen sees Colorado momentum carrying it forward despite the turbulence in Washington.

“The state has already put so many policies in play. Those policies have made it more competitive for the federal funding it has already received, and it has a better plan to maybe sort of take that funding and do something with it. They’re well positioned to move forward quicker than a lot of other places. That’s a testament to what Colorado has done already as a state, and I would say a sign that they should keep going, do more.”