Advanced Energy Perspectives

This post is one in a series of feature stories on trends that shape advanced energy markets in the U.S. and around the world. It is drawn from Advanced Energy Now 2017 Market Report, which was prepared for AEE by Navigant Research.

Global biofuel markets are driven by a unique elixir of national annually adjusted production targets, oil prices, and desire for energy independence. Biofuels have endured more than a decade of scrutiny for everything ranging from subsidies to environmentalist concerns to possible impacts on food prices. Despite all of this, biofuels have proven a resilient global market led by the United States and Brazil. Revenue from ethanol production dropped dramatically in 2016 – down to $37 billion globally, and to $20.6 billion in the United States – as ethanol prices have fallen in competition with low-priced oil (see figure below). In both worldwide and U.S. markets, ethanol revenue hit its lowest point in the six years Navigant Research has been tracking the industry. In addition to the low oil prices, and resulting low gasoline prices, low corn prices contributed to the decline in ethanol pricing. Corn prices also fell to the lowest in a decade in October 2016, right after the U.S. corn harvest ended.

This post is one in a series of feature stories on trends that shape advanced energy markets in the U.S. and around the world. It is drawn from Advanced Energy Now 2017 Market Report, which was prepared for AEE by Navigant Research.

The biofuels market in the United States is primarily driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). While Congress set the original targets in 2007, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sets the final mandate for each calendar year to adjust for market conditions. In 2016, the EPA expanded the biofuels market by nearly 1.2 billion gallons for 2016, and another 1.17 billion gallons for 2017 across the four major renewable fuel categories: advanced biofuels; biomass-based diesel; cellulosic biofuel, made from cellulose or lignin; and “renewable fuel,” primarily corn-based ethanol, the largest category.

This post is one in a series of feature stories on trends that shape advanced energy markets in the U.S. and around the world. It is drawn from Advanced Energy Now 2017 Market Report, which was prepared for AEE by Navigant Research.

Because diesel engines are more fuel efficient than gasoline engines, diesel has become a popular automotive alternative, especially in markets where gasoline prices are higher than or equal to diesel prices, most notably in Europe and India. The traditional challenge with diesel engines is that they are more polluting than gasoline engines, but auto (and truck) makers have made great strides toward reducing the emissions of these fuel-efficient vehicles, giving rise to the term “clean diesel.” Navigant Research considers diesel vehicles that meet or exceed the EU’s Euro 5 standards or the U.S. Tier 2 standards to be clean diesel vehicles. Clean diesels have been heavily adopted in the European market, where they are credited with dampening the initial sales of gasoline-powered hybrids. It looked like North America, the second largest automotive global market, was primed to follow Europe’s lead. Then came “Dieselgate.”

This post is one in a series of feature stories on trends shaping advanced energy markets in the U.S. and around the world, drawn from Advanced Energy Now 2017 Market Report, which was prepared for AEE by Navigant Research.

The LA Times reported last month that the release of the Chevy Bolt, a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) with a baseline price under $30,000 after federal tax credits, has boosted EV sales in California by 91% over last year. This is part of a larger trend we identified in our Advanced Energy Now 2017 Market Report, which was prepared for AEE by Navigant Research.

The PEV market is now well-established in North America, Europe, and developed Asia Pacific markets. This has largely been a function of strong government support for PEV technologies through fuel efficiency regulations, which stimulate the supply of PEVs, as well as incentives for PEV purchases, which stimulate demand. As a result of the two-pronged approach to PEV market development, the PEV market has grown from around 30,000 vehicles in 2011 to over 500,000 in 2015, and now an estimated 684,000 in 2016. This translates to a six-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in unit volume of 87%, and nearly $7.8 billion vehicle sales revenue in 2016.

This post is one in a series of feature stories on trends shaping advanced energy markets in the U.S. and around the world, drawn from Advanced Energy Now 2017 Market Report, which was prepared for AEE by Navigant Research.

Uber screenshots from China, India, England, and the United States. Images courtesy of Uber.

The personal transportation market is evolving in new ways. In the near future, it is reasonable to expect that car-sharing and ride-hailing will combine with autonomous vehicle technology and connectivity to remake personal transportation. Cars may not fly, but riding from here to there will be on-demand, cleaner, and safer.