Advanced Energy Perspectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a tough time for the advanced energy industry, along with many others. With more than 600,000 jobs lost in the associated shutdown of the economy, the impact has been hard, and the difficulty of getting attention to it in Washington, D.C., even harder. But as states begin to open up, however slowly, and the focus of policymakers, state and federal, turns to jumpstarting economic activity, everyone who works in or cares about the transition to an advanced energy economy should take heart – and speak up.

I’m sure you don’t need another blog telling you how COVID-19 has changed everything. While I won’t be able to fully avoid some of that here, read on if you want to know what is still happening at some of the state utility commissions around the country where AEE is actively engaged. My colleagues and I are used to traveling to state capitals to engage in regulatory proceedings, and while that obviously isn’t possible, commissions have transitioned much of their work online. There’s some good news here, and if you are like me, you can use all the good news you can get.

If you’re looking for big trends to watch in electricity markets, there’s no shortage these days. Some are broad policy issues, like the growing number of states targeting 100% clean grids (definitions vary but they are all directionally similar). Others are being driven by technology innovation, such as the continuing price declines for renewable energy and batteries. Some have a strong consumer focus, like smart thermostats and electric vehicles. Others are downright wonky, like the ongoing challenges related to the participation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in organized wholesale markets, or how states are trying to modernize the utility business model for the 21st century. One that we’ll look at today is how state policies to achieve 100% clean grids affect resource adequacy – that is, ensuring there is sufficient generating capacity to meet demand at all times.

A new working paper from the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute is creating a bit of a stir. It concludes that one of the most popular, successful, and common state-level renewable energy policies – Renewable Portfolio Standards, or RPS – is far more expensive than previously believed. But there are reasons – multiple, in fact – to take the authors’ provocative conclusion with a grain of salt. So, too, their implied alternative, which would be to take a policy that seems to be working in 29 states and replace it with one that has nowhere been implemented on a scale sufficient to change the electric power mix as much as the RPS targets now being adopted by states around the country.

As we have written many times in the past, the electric power sector is in the midst of some big changes. Whether it is new wind and solar power beating existing coal generation on price, the rise of electric and autonomous vehicles, or the multiple factors behind the evolving utility business model, change is in the air, and those changes are being driven in large part by technology and customer preferences. So it is not a question of if, but when change occurs, and it is also possible to imagine what the end state is going to look like, even if the timing and many of the details remain unknown. Uncertain, as well, is the path to that end state. But states ranging from Pennsylvania to Hawaii are blazing the trail, each in their own way.