Sometimes, it’s not so bad to be proved wrong. Late last month, David Keith, a Harvard professor of applied physics and public policy, published a piece in Greentech Media, revisiting his 2008-2011 projections on the cost of solar modules, in which he was skeptical about predictions of falling prices. But solar has gotten much cheaper much faster than he thought. In 2008 he predicted only even odds of lowering the price of a solar power system to $0.30 per watt in 2030. In reality, the prices have already lowered to $0.50 per watt, and for large installations in the best locations, the cost of electricity from solar PV, without subsidy, is now under $40 per MW-hour, and could be at $20 by 2020. “Compared to other new sources of supply, this would be the cheapest electricity on the planet,” wrote Keith.
We here at Advanced Energy Perspectives are no strangers to being wrong, but we’ve also long known that the rapid innovation in technologies and business models is driving down the cost of advanced energy, and renewables in particular, making it more desirable for customers of all kinds. This week we saw several examples of this trend.