As the nation looks ahead, the offshore industry remains resilient in the face of potential challenges. The Boston Globe spoke with several offshore wind experts, including United's Jeremy McDiarmid, who emphasized that, while there may be some project delays, the offshore wind industry's overall strength remains evident. He also discussed how investments in renewable energy sources, like offshore wind, contribute to economic and job growth, as well as help position the US as a global leader in advanced energy development.
In the summer of 2019, Massachusetts was poised for a big moment: Any day, the federal government would be issuing a final environmental permit for what was sure to be a game changer: the first industrial offshore wind project in the United States, Vineyard Wind.
Momentum had been building for years, which was why it was surprising when Governor Charlie Baker pulled his new energy and environment secretary, Katie Theoharides, aside to deliver some bad news.
Instead of issuing the permit as expected, the Trump administration was hitting the brakes to launch a broad study of the potential cumulative impacts of planned offshore wind projects. “We weren’t expecting it,” Theoharides said, remembering the day. “Everything had looked really smooth up until that point.”
It was the beginning of a “hinder and delay” strategy that came to define the Trump administration’s approach to offshore wind, said Jeremy McDiarmid, general counsel at the clean trade group Advanced Energy United.
Now, people in the clean energy industry are bracing for a much more overt effort from the second Trump administration to slow or stop wind power.
Last go-around, the interruption seemed plausible; a cumulative impact study could be justified by some as a responsible step. Except, that’s not been required of the oil and gas industry. “It seemed pretty clear that they were doing it just to derail this offshore wind train,” said John Rogers, senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
It appeared a new double standard was being applied — one that would set back clean energy just as Massachusetts and other states were committing to slashing their greenhouse gas emissions to tackle the climate crisis, relying heavily on offshore wind.
After President Biden took office in 2021, permits got back on track, though projects were well behind. Vineyard Wind, for example, was initially scheduled to be completed in 2023; instead, it only began construction last year and has since been interrupted after a blade on one of the turbines broke this summer.
Now, among the potential threats the industry is anticipating from Trump are new tariffs or shrinking tax incentives that could drive up the costs to unsustainable levels, or even a halt in permits or new leases.
“This regulatory uncertainty increases the cost of development, it increases financing costs, it probably reduces the number of investors that are interested in accepting this risk,” said McDiarmid. “The offshore wind developers don’t start to earn money until the electrons flow.”
The stakes are high: Wind farms provide a huge boost to the state reaching its clean energy goals. When Vineyard Wind 1 is fully online, for instance, it will provide enough electricity for more than 400,000 homes and meet 5.5 percent of the state’s annual electricity demand. Another project, known as New England Wind 1, would have a similar effect.
Developers lay out billions of dollars to bring an offshore wind project to fruition, and are ultimately paid back when they sell the electricity to utilities. Because offshore wind projects have lower operating costs relative to fossil fuels when completed, supporters say wind should eventually bring costs down for ratepayers.
There are some key differences between now and eight years ago, when Trump first entered office: The industry is far more developed, with multiple projects up and down the coast, projects being built, planned, or in various stages of permitting.
While much of this is happening in coastal blue states, the industry is bringing an economic boom to red states too. Louisiana, for example, is a pivotal part of the supply chain, supplying the equipment and vessels used in building wind farms. Those jobs and contracts in Republican-held states might make it tougher to stop progress entirely.
Nonetheless, Trump these days is more vocal in his antipathy to wind turbines, claiming in May that “they destroy everything, they’re horrible, the most expensive energy there is.” He has embraced discredited antiwind claims about how wind affects whales, birds, and the environment, and vowed on his first day in office to issue an executive order halting offshore wind projects.
Still, even if the industry hits major delays during the next four years of the Trump administration, “it’s not going to erase the offshore wind industry by any means,” said McDiarmid. “I think the industry is way too mature for that.”
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